Mauritania

Economic Overview

The Islamic Republic of Mauritania is a vast, arid nation bridging the Arab Maghreb and Sub-Saharan West Africa. Its economy has traditionally been built on two pillars: iron ore and fisheries. However, the country is on the verge of a major economic transformation with the commencement of the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) natural gas project, which it shares with neighboring Senegal. The 2025-2026 outlook is for a significant acceleration in growth, driven by the start of gas exports, which will reshape the country's economic future.

GDP Size & Growth Trajectory

Mauritania's economy has experienced moderate growth, influenced by commodity prices and climate conditions. Real GDP growth was estimated at 3.4% in 2023. The IMF projects a significant boost, with growth forecast to accelerate to 4.3% in 2025, largely driven by the start of gas production from the GTA field. This new hydrocarbon revenue stream is expected to drive double-digit growth in the medium term, providing a major opportunity for economic development.

Sector Composition

• Services: This sector is the largest contributor to the economy, accounting for approximately 50% of GDP. It is led by trade and transport.
• Industry: The industrial sector contributes around 30% of GDP and is dominated by extractive industries. Iron ore has historically been the backbone of the economy and the main export. This is now being supplemented by the massive natural gas developments.
• Agriculture: This sector accounts for about 15% of GDP. The fisheries sub-sector is a critical source of foreign exchange earnings, with Mauritania's waters being among the richest fishing grounds in the world. The rest of the agricultural sector is focused on livestock and is highly vulnerable to drought.

Inflation Trends

Inflation has been a challenge, influenced by global food and commodity prices. The Central Bank of Mauritania (BCM) has been working to contain these pressures. With the expected inflow of gas revenues, managing the potential inflationary impact will be a key policy challenge.

Fiscal & Monetary Policy Stance

• Monetary Policy: Unlike many of its neighbors in the CFA Franc zone, Mauritania has its own independent currency, the Ouguiya (MRU), and monetary policy, managed by the BCM.
• Fiscal Policy: The government's fiscal position is set to be transformed by gas revenues. A key challenge will be to manage these new revenues transparently and effectively, using them to finance sustainable development, diversify the economy, and avoid the "resource curse."

Table 1: Key Macroeconomic Indicators (2023-2026F)

Market Size & Demand Potential

The domestic market is small due to the low population density, but the country's strategic position and resource wealth are significant.

Population Size and Demographics

With a population of around 5 million, Mauritania is a large country with a small, young population.

Urbanization and Consumer Hubs

The capital city, Nouakchott, is the main political and economic center. Nouadhibou is the second-largest city and the hub of the country's iron ore and fishing industries.

Business Environment

The government is working to improve the business environment to attract investment, particularly into its new gas sector and related industries.

Ease of Doing Business & Regulatory Reforms

While challenges related to bureaucracy and governance remain, the government has made attracting foreign investment a priority. The investment promotion agency works to facilitate the process for new investors.

Political Stability & Governance

Mauritania has a history of political instability and military coups, but the country has been relatively stable in recent years.

Political Environment

The country is a presidential republic. The current government has focused on maintaining stability, fighting security threats in the Sahel region, and overseeing the development of its natural resources.

Rule of Law & Investor Protection

The legal system is a mix of French civil law and Sharia law. While a legal framework for investment exists, the rule of law can be weak in practice.

Infrastructure Readiness

Infrastructure is being developed to support the country's extractive industries.

Transport and Logistics

• Ports: The main commercial port is in Nouakchott. The port of Nouadhibou is the primary hub for iron ore exports and the fishing industry. New infrastructure is being developed to support the GTA gas project.
• Iron Ore Railway: A 700-kilometer railway line, one of the longest in the world, connects the iron ore mines in the interior to the port of Nouadhibou.

Sector-Specific Opportunities

1. Natural Gas (Greater Tortue Ahmeyim)

The GTA gas project, operated by bp, is the single largest investment opportunity in the country's history. It involves the development of a major offshore gas field and the construction of a Floating LNG (FLNG) facility. This creates immense opportunities for service companies in the hydrocarbon sector.

2. Mining (Iron Ore)

Iron ore remains a cornerstone of the economy. Opportunities exist for investment in modernizing and expanding existing mining operations.

3. Fisheries

Mauritania's rich fishing grounds offer significant potential. There are opportunities in sustainable fishing, high-quality fish processing for export markets (particularly Europe), and the production of fishmeal.

4. Renewable Energy

With its vast desert and high levels of solar irradiation, Mauritania has world-class potential for solar and wind energy. This is a key area for future diversification, with the potential to produce green hydrogen for export.