South Sudan

Economic Overview

The Republic of South Sudan has an economy that is simultaneously one of the most oil-dependent and least developed in the world. Since its independence in 2011, the nation's potential has been decimated by a brutal civil war, persistent political fragility, and climate-related shocks. The economy is almost entirely reliant on crude oil exports, which are transported via a pipeline through its northern neighbor, Sudan. This single source of revenue is highly vulnerable to global oil price fluctuations and, more critically, to geopolitical tensions with Sudan. The 2025-2026 outlook is extremely fragile, contingent on maintaining a tenuous peace, the continued flow of oil, and massive international humanitarian support.

GDP Size & Growth Trajectory

South Sudan's GDP is small and exhibits extreme volatility, directly tracking oil production and prices. Periods of conflict lead to sharp contractions as oil fields are shut down, while periods of relative peace see growth rebound. The IMF projects growth to be around 3.1% in 2025, but this is from a very low base and is highly uncertain.

Sector Composition

• Industry: This sector completely dominates the formal economy, contributing over 60% of GDP. This figure is almost exclusively derived from crude oil production. Oil accounts for nearly all (over 98%) of the country's export earnings and the vast majority of government revenue. There is virtually no other industrial or manufacturing activity.
• Agriculture: While contributing a much smaller share to GDP (around 15%), this sector is the foundation of livelihoods for over 80% of the population. It is almost entirely subsistence-based and characterized by extremely low productivity.
• Services: The services sector accounts for about 10% of GDP and consists mainly of informal trade and government services funded by oil revenue.

Inflation Trends

Hyperinflation has been a chronic and devastating feature of the South Sudanese economy, driven by the monetization of fiscal deficits, currency depreciation, and severe food shortages. While the rate has fluctuated, it has frequently been in the triple digits, wiping out savings and destroying livelihoods.

Fiscal & Monetary Policy Stance

• Monetary Policy: The Bank of South Sudan manages the South Sudanese Pound (SSP). Its ability to conduct monetary policy is severely constrained by political instability and the dominance of fiscal needs.
• Fiscal Policy: The government is almost entirely dependent on oil revenues. The lack of transparency in how these revenues are managed is a major challenge. The fiscal situation is precarious, with most expenditure directed towards security and public administration, leaving little for development or social services.

Table 1: Key Macroeconomic Indicators (2023-2026F)

Market Size & Demand Potential

The formal domestic market is virtually non-existent due to extreme poverty, conflict, and a lack of infrastructure. The economy is structured around the extraction and export of oil, not domestic consumption.

Population Size and Demographics

South Sudan has a population of around 11 million. It is facing one of the world's worst humanitarian crises, with millions of people internally displaced or living as refugees in neighboring countries due to conflict and flooding. Human development indicators are among the lowest in the world.

Urbanization and Consumer Hubs

The capital city, Juba, is the center of government and the very limited formal economic activity.

Business Environment

The business environment is exceptionally difficult and high-risk, ranking at the very bottom of all global indices.

Ease of Doing Business & Regulatory Reforms

Insecurity, non-existent infrastructure, endemic corruption, and the complete absence of a reliable legal or regulatory framework make formal business operations nearly impossible.

Political Stability & Governance

South Sudan has been in a state of near-constant conflict since a civil war broke out in 2013, just two years after its independence.

Political Environment

A transitional government, formed as part of a revitalized peace agreement, is in place, but its implementation has been slow and marked by continued political rivalries and localized violence. The political situation is extremely fragile, and the risk of a return to large-scale conflict remains high.

Rule of Law & Investor Protection

There is no effective rule of law. The judicial system is not functional, and there are no protections for investors. Property rights are not secure, and contract enforcement is non-existent.

Infrastructure Readiness

Infrastructure across the country has either been destroyed by war or was never built in the first place.

Transport and Logistics

As a landlocked country, South Sudan is dependent on its neighbors for access to the sea. Its oil is exported via a pipeline through Sudan to Port Sudan on the Red Sea, making its entire economy hostage to its relationship with Khartoum. The internal road network is almost entirely unpaved and impassable during the rainy season.

Energy Sector

Access to electricity is virtually nil, even in the capital. The country has no national grid. All power is from small-scale, expensive diesel generators.

Sector-Specific Opportunities

Given the extreme security, political, and operational risks, there are no viable opportunities for conventional private sector investment in South Sudan. The only significant foreign involvement is from international oil companies operating in the upstream oil sector, which requires a massive appetite for frontier risk and a focus on security. All other activity is dominated by international aid agencies and NGOs delivering humanitarian assistance.

In a hypothetical, long-term, post-conflict future, the most basic needs of the economy would present opportunities:

• Agriculture: Revitalizing the agricultural sector to ensure food security.
• Infrastructure: The complete reconstruction of roads, power, and water systems.
• Services: Establishing basic financial and telecommunications services.