Sudan

Economic Overview

The Republic of the Sudan is in a state of catastrophic economic collapse following the outbreak of a devastating civil war in April 2023. The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has not only created one of the world's largest humanitarian and displacement crises but has also completely shattered the country's economic foundations. All macroeconomic analysis is now secondary to the reality of active conflict. The 2025-2026 outlook is entirely dependent on a potential cessation of hostilities, as the formal economy has ceased to function in any meaningful way.

GDP Size & Growth Trajectory

Prior to the war, Sudan's economy was already fragile. The conflict has triggered a severe economic contraction. The IMF estimated a staggering GDP contraction of 18.3% in 2023. Projections for 2024 and beyond are dire, with any form of recovery contingent on the establishment of a lasting peace. The economy has effectively been reset to a baseline of humanitarian aid and informal subsistence activities.

Sector Composition

The war has decimated all sectors of the economy.

• Agriculture: Historically the most important sector, employing around 80% of the population and contributing over 35% of GDP. Sudan was a major producer of gum arabic, sesame, and livestock. The conflict has severely disrupted planting seasons, destroyed infrastructure, and displaced farming communities, leading to a state of severe food insecurity and famine in large parts of the country.
• Industry: The industrial sector, including what was left of the oil sector after South Sudan's secession, has been largely destroyed. Manufacturing and processing facilities, particularly around the capital, have been looted or razed.
• Services: The formal services sector, including banking and telecommunications, has collapsed. The financial system is non-functional.

Inflation Trends

Hyperinflation is rampant, driven by the complete collapse of production, the printing of money by rival authorities, severe shortages of all basic goods, and the breakdown of all supply chains. Reliable inflation data is unavailable, but anecdotal evidence points to triple-digit inflation rates.

Fiscal & Monetary Policy Stance

There is no unified fiscal or monetary policy. The country is politically and administratively fragmented, with rival authorities attempting to control territory and resources. The formal fiscal system has collapsed, and the central bank is unable to implement any coherent policy.

Debt Sustainability Indicators

Prior to the war, Sudan was already in debt distress and was making progress towards debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative. The conflict has completely derailed this process. The country is in default on its obligations, and there is no prospect of resolving its debt situation until a political settlement is reached.

Table 1: Key Macroeconomic Indicators (2023-2026F) - Pre-War context for reference only

Market Size & Demand Potential

The formal market has collapsed. Demand is almost entirely for basic humanitarian necessities—food, water, and medicine—which is being met by international aid organizations.

Population Size and Demographics

Sudan has a large and young population of over 49 million. The war has created the world's largest displacement crisis, with millions internally displaced and millions more having fled to neighboring countries as refugees.

Urbanization and Consumer Hubs

The capital city, Khartoum, once the economic and political center, has been the epicenter of the conflict and has been largely destroyed. Other cities have also been severely affected. Economic activity has shifted to relatively safer areas like Port Sudan on the Red Sea, which has become the de facto hub for government functions and international aid operations.

Business Environment

There is currently no viable or safe environment for conducting formal business or investment in Sudan.

Ease of Doing Business & Regulatory Reforms

All formal business registration and regulatory systems have ceased to function. There is no rule of law, and a state of extreme insecurity prevails across most of the country.

Political Stability & Governance

Sudan is in a state of active civil war.

Political Environment

The conflict is a power struggle between two main military factions: the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo ("Hemedti"). International and regional efforts to mediate a ceasefire and political solution have so far been unsuccessful.

Rule of Law & Investor Protection

There is a complete breakdown of the rule of law. There is no protection for property, assets, or investors.

Infrastructure Readiness

Sudan's already limited infrastructure has been systematically destroyed during the conflict.

Transport and Logistics

The road network is severely damaged. The main airport in Khartoum is closed. Port Sudan on the Red Sea remains the only major functioning port and the primary gateway for humanitarian aid.

Energy Sector

The energy infrastructure has been heavily damaged, leading to a near-total collapse of the electricity grid.

Sector-Specific Opportunities

Given the ongoing war, the extreme security risks, and the complete collapse of the state and the formal economy, there are no viable or recommended investment opportunities in Sudan at this time. The only significant economic activity is related to the delivery of humanitarian aid by international organizations. Any future economic potential is entirely contingent on a lasting cessation of hostilities and a comprehensive political settlement that would allow for a decades-long process of reconstruction and state-building.