The global transition to a low-carbon economy, underpinned by the electric vehicle (EV) revolution and the expansion of renewable energy storage, is fundamentally reshaping global supply chains. At the heart of this shift lies a suite of "critical minerals," and Africa has emerged as the indispensable, strategic epicenter for the most important of these: cobalt, copper, and lithium. This report analyzes the African countries that are the new power brokers in the EV battery supply chain, examining their resource dominance, the geopolitical and investment dynamics at play, and the immense opportunities and significant risks involved.
Our analysis shows that a handful of African nations hold a near-monopolistic position in key battery metals, creating a new "geopolitical hotspot" for resource competition between global powers, particularly China and the West.
Key findings include:
- Cobalt Dominance: The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is the undisputed global giant, supplying over 70% of the world's cobalt. This single country's stability and production are the most critical variable in the entire global EV market.
- Copper's Central Role: Often overlooked, copper is the "workhorse" of the green transition. The "Copperbelt," straddling the DRC and Zambia, is one of the world's richest copper-producing regions, essential for EV wiring, charging infrastructure, and grid expansion.
- The Lithium Rush: While established players like Australia and Chile lead, Africa is the new frontier for lithium exploration and development. Zimbabwe holds Africa's largest reserves and is attracting a wave of investment, positioning it as a major future supplier.
- Geopolitical Competition: The race to secure these supply chains has become a key arena for geostrategic competition. China has established a dominant position, particularly in the DRC, through long-term investments in mining and processing. The United States and the European Union are now playing catch-up, launching major initiatives like the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGI) and the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act to secure alternative, non-Chinese supply chains. The Lobito Corridor project, connecting the DRC and Zambia to an Angolan port, is the flagship Western-backed initiative designed to counter China's influence.
- Value Chain Risks: The supply chain is fraught with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risks, most notably the issue of child labor in artisanal cobalt mining in the DRC. This creates immense pressure for traceability, transparency, and investment in responsible sourcing practices.
The investment thesis is clear: the road to a global "Net Zero" future runs directly through Africa's mining sector. However, capitalizing on this opportunity requires a sophisticated understanding of the complex interplay between geology, geopolitics, and governance.
The global energy transition is, in essence, a materials transition. A typical electric vehicle battery requires a complex blend of minerals, with some being more critical and supply-constrained than others.
- Cobalt: Essential for the stability and performance of lithium-ion battery cathodes. It allows batteries to operate at a high voltage, delivering more power and a longer life cycle. There are currently no viable, at-scale substitutes for cobalt in high-performance batteries.
- Copper: The unsung hero of electrification. An EV requires up to four times more copper than an internal combustion engine vehicle, used in its battery, motor, and wiring. The charging infrastructure and grid upgrades required to support EVs will also demand massive amounts of new copper supply.
- Lithium: The core component of the battery, acting as the primary charge carrier. Known as "white gold," its demand has exploded with the rise of EVs.
- Nickel & Manganese: Also key components in various battery chemistries.
- Graphite: The primary material used for the battery's anode.
Global demand for these minerals is projected to skyrocket. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that demand for lithium could increase by over 40 times by 2040, with demand for cobalt and nickel growing by over 20 times. This unprecedented demand is creating a scramble to secure long-term, stable supply.
Africa's geological endowment places it at the center of this new global resource map.
1. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): The Cobalt Superpower
The DRC's position in the global economy is analogous to Saudi Arabia's in oil.
- Market Share: The DRC accounts for over 70% of global cobalt production.
- Reserve Base: It holds approximately 50% of the world's known cobalt reserves.
- The Chinese Nexus: China has achieved a dominant strategic position in the DRC's cobalt sector. Chinese companies control a significant majority of the country's industrial cobalt mines and nearly all of its refining capacity. This gives China immense leverage over the global battery supply chain.
- The ESG Challenge: The DRC's cobalt production is plagued by severe ESG concerns. A significant portion of its supply comes from the artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) sector, where an estimated 255,000 people work, including tens of thousands of children. These "creuseurs" (diggers) work in dangerous, unregulated conditions, and their output is often mixed into the formal supply chain, creating major reputational and legal risks for end-users like EV manufacturers. This has created a massive push for supply chain traceability using technologies like blockchain.
2. Zambia & DRC: The Copperbelt
The Central African Copperbelt, a vast geological formation that straddles northern Zambia and the southern DRC, is one of the world's most significant copper-producing regions.
- Production Scale: The DRC and Zambia are Africa's #1 and #2 copper producers, respectively.
- The Infrastructure Bottleneck: A primary constraint on the Copperbelt's potential has been logistics. As landlocked countries, they have traditionally relied on long, slow, and expensive road routes to ports in South Africa (Durban) or Tanzania (Dar es Salaam).
- The Lobito Corridor Solution: The Western-backed revitalization of the Lobito Corridor is a game-changer. This rail line connects the Copperbelt directly to the port of Lobito in Angola, offering a faster and cheaper route to the Atlantic. This single infrastructure project is key to unlocking the full production potential of the Copperbelt and providing a strategic alternative to Chinese-controlled logistics routes.
3. Zimbabwe: The Emerging Lithium Giant
While established producers like Australia and Chile dominate lithium supply today, Africa is the new frontier, and Zimbabwe is at its heart.
- Reserve Size: Zimbabwe holds Africa's largest lithium reserves and is considered one of the top ten largest globally.
- The Investment Rush: The country is experiencing a major investment boom, primarily from Chinese companies who have spent over $1 billion in recent years to acquire and develop lithium projects. Major projects like the Arcadia and Bikita mines are ramping up production, positioning Zimbabwe as a significant future supplier to the global market.
The concentration of these critical minerals in a few African nations has turned the region into a major arena for geopolitical competition between China and the West.
- China's First-Mover Advantage: Through its Belt and Road Initiative, China has spent over a decade systematically securing its access to African minerals. It has done this through direct equity investments in mines, infrastructure-for-minerals deals, and by building a near-monopoly on the mid-stream processing and refining stages of the value chain. Most of the raw cobalt and lithium mined in Africa is shipped to China for refining before being used in batteries.
- The Western Response: The US and EU, recognizing their strategic vulnerability, have launched counter-initiatives. The US Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGI) and the EU's Global Gateway are explicitly designed to mobilize public and private finance to build alternative, non-Chinese supply chains. The Lobito Corridor is the signature project of this strategy. The EU's Critical Raw Materials Act also sets targets for diversifying its mineral supply away from any single country.
This competition creates both opportunities and risks for African nations. It provides them with greater leverage and a wider range of financing options. However, it also brings the risk of being caught in a "new cold war" over resources.
The ultimate prize for these African nations is not just to export more raw materials, but to move up the value chain. The "resource curse"—where mineral wealth fails to translate into broad-based development—is a real risk.
The strategic imperative is to leverage this mineral wealth to catalyze domestic industrialization. This involves:
- Promoting Local Processing: Instead of exporting raw cobalt ore or lithium spodumene, the goal is to build local refineries to produce higher-value chemical precursors.
- Developing Battery Component Manufacturing: The next step is to manufacture battery components like cathodes and anodes domestically.
- Building Battery Gigafactories: The final ambition is to establish large-scale battery manufacturing plants on the continent to supply the growing African automotive market and for export.
This is a long-term vision, but it is the central industrial policy goal for countries like the DRC and Zambia. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the development of the African Battery Initiative are creating the regional framework to make this vision a reality. For investors, the long-term opportunity lies not just in the mines themselves, but in partnering with these countries to build out the entire battery value chain on African soil.