Why Global Energy Transitions Are Turning Africa Into a Strategic Resource Hub

Executive Summary

The 21st-century global economy is undergoing its most profound energy transition since the dawn of the oil age. The worldwide pivot away from fossil fuels towards electrification, renewable energy, and battery storage is not merely an environmental policy shift; it is a fundamental re-engineering of the material basis of our energy and transport systems. This transition is turning a specific suite of "critical minerals" into the new strategic assets of global power and commerce. As a result, Africa, with its unparalleled geological endowment of these essential materials, is being transformed from a peripheral supplier of traditional commodities into an indispensable, strategic hub at the very center of the new energy economy.

This report analyzes the geopolitical and economic forces that are repositioning Africa as a nexus for the global energy transition. Our analysis reveals that the continent's immense reserves of cobalt, lithium, platinum, manganese, and graphite are no longer just valuable resources but are now critical, non-negotiable inputs for the world's green ambitions.

Key findings include:

• Resource Dominance: Africa holds a commanding, and in some cases near-monopolistic, share of the world's most critical energy transition minerals. This includes over 70% of cobalt (DRC), over 50% of platinum group metals (South Africa), and globally significant reserves of manganese (South Africa, Gabon), graphite (Mozambique), and lithium (Zimbabwe, DRC).
• The New "Great Game": This concentration of resources has ignited a new era of geopolitical competition for access and influence in Africa. The primary contest is between China, which has established a formidable first-mover advantage through years of strategic investment, and a Western bloc (led by the US and EU) that is now urgently trying to secure alternative, non-Chinese supply chains through initiatives like the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGI).
• From Extraction to Value Addition: African nations are increasingly unwilling to remain mere exporters of raw ore. A major policy push is underway across the continent to capture more value domestically by promoting local processing, refining, and manufacturing. This includes developing battery precursor facilities and, ultimately, regional battery manufacturing "gigafactories," a strategy supported by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
• Infrastructure as a Geopolitical Tool: The battle for influence is being waged through infrastructure. Corridors like the Western-backed Lobito Corridor (Angola-Zambia-DRC) are being developed not just for logistics but as explicit geopolitical tools to provide alternative export routes for critical minerals, directly challenging Chinese-controlled infrastructure.

The conclusion is clear: the path to a decarbonized global economy runs directly through Africa. This has turned the continent into a strategic chessboard where mineral access, infrastructure development, and industrial policy are the new pieces in a global game for 21st-century economic and energy security.

I. The Material Foundation of the Green Revolution

The global energy transition is fundamentally a transition of materials. Unlike fossil fuels, which are consumed, the green energy system is built out of minerals. This means that instead of a constant need for oil and gas, there is now a massive, upfront demand for the metals required to build solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicles, and the battery storage systems that enable them.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has quantified this material shift. An electric vehicle requires six times the mineral inputs of a conventional car, and an offshore wind plant requires thirteen times more mineral resources than a similarly-sized gas-fired power plant. This has triggered an unprecedented surge in demand for a specific set of minerals:

• For Batteries (EVs & Grid Storage):
  • Lithium, Cobalt, Nickel, Manganese: These are the essential cathode materials in lithium-ion batteries.
  • Graphite: The primary material for battery anodes.
• For Electrification (Grids & Wiring):
  • Copper: The absolute workhorse of electrification, used in everything from wiring and motors to charging stations and grid infrastructure.
• For a Hydrogen Economy:
  • Platinum Group Metals (PGMs): Platinum and iridium are critical catalysts used in electrolyzers to produce green hydrogen and in fuel cells to convert hydrogen back into electricity.

The IEA projects that to meet global climate targets, the overall demand for these critical minerals will need to quadruple by 2040. For minerals used in EVs and battery storage, the demand growth is even more dramatic, potentially increasing by over 30 times. This is not a cyclical commodity boom; it is a structural, long-term shift in the foundational resources of the global economy.

II. Africa's Geological Superpower Status

Africa's unique geology has endowed it with a concentration of these critical minerals that is unmatched by any other continent. This has transformed its resource map from one of peripheral importance to one of central, strategic necessity.

Table 1: Africa's Dominance in Key Energy Transition Minerals

This geological lottery has made the stability and political alignment of a few key African nations a matter of global economic security. The supply chain for the entire EV industry, for example, begins in the cobalt mines of the DRC. The future of the hydrogen economy is inextricably linked to the platinum mines of South Africa.

III. The New "Great Game": China's Advantage and the West's Response

The strategic importance of these resources has inevitably ignited a new era of geopolitical competition for influence and access in Africa, often dubbed a "new Great Game."

• China's Strategic Domination: For over a decade, China has executed a brilliant and systematic strategy to dominate the critical mineral supply chain. It has not just focused on mining but has strategically captured the crucial mid-stream processing and refining stage.

  • Today, China refines approximately 73% of the world's cobalt, 67% of its lithium, and nearly 100% of the spherical graphite used in battery anodes.
  • This means that even minerals mined in Africa are shipped to China for processing before being sold to the rest of the world.
  • This has been achieved through state-backed loans, infrastructure-for-minerals deals, and direct acquisitions of mining assets across Africa, particularly in the DRC and Zimbabwe.

• The West's Strategic Awakening: The United States and the European Union have belatedly recognized this profound strategic vulnerability. Their reliance on a Chinese-controlled supply chain for the foundational materials of their own green industrial policy is no longer tenable.

  • In response, they have launched major strategic initiatives like the US Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGI) and the EU's Global Gateway and Critical Raw Materials Act.
  • These programs are explicitly designed to mobilize billions of dollars in public and private capital to build alternative, non-Chinese supply chains.
  • The flagship project of this new strategy is the Lobito Corridor, a US-EU-backed rail line designed to provide a direct route for copper and cobalt from the DRC and Zambia to an Atlantic port in Angola, bypassing Chinese-controlled logistics routes in East Africa.

This competition is creating a new dynamic for African nations, giving them greater agency and more options for financing and partnerships.

IV. Africa's Ambition: Moving Up the Value Chain

A central theme across the continent is a powerful and growing desire to break the colonial economic model of simply exporting raw materials. African leaders are determined to use this moment of strategic importance to catalyze domestic industrialization.

This "value-addition" strategy is being pursued on multiple fronts:

1. Banning Raw Ore Exports: Countries like Zimbabwe and Namibia have banned the export of raw, unprocessed lithium ore. This forces mining companies to invest in building local "beneficiation" plants to upgrade the ore into higher-value concentrates before export.
2. Developing Regional Value Chains: The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) provides the framework for creating regional value chains. For example, the Zambia-DRC Battery Council is a joint initiative to harmonize policies and promote the development of an integrated battery value chain—from mining cobalt and lithium to producing battery precursors and eventually manufacturing battery cells.
3. Attracting "Gigafactories": The ultimate ambition is to host battery "gigafactories" on African soil to supply the continent's own nascent EV market and for export. This would represent the final step in capturing the full value of the continent's mineral wealth.

V. Conclusion: Africa at the Center of the World

The global energy transition has fundamentally and permanently elevated Africa's position in the world economy. The continent is no longer a peripheral source of resources but a central and strategic hub, holding the key to the materials that will power the 21st-century's green infrastructure.

This new status brings both immense opportunity and significant risk. The influx of investment and geopolitical attention can be a powerful catalyst for industrialization and development. However, it also brings the risk of a "new scramble for Africa," renewed debt dependency, and the potential for a "resource curse" if the wealth is not managed transparently and inclusively.

For investors and global powers, the message is clear: a secure and resilient green energy supply chain is impossible without Africa. Engaging with the continent—not as a passive source of raw materials, but as a strategic partner in building a new, more sustainable global economy—is no longer a choice, but a necessity.