How Nigeria, Angola, and Mozambique Are Reshaping the Future LNG Supply Market

Executive Summary

The global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) market is undergoing a structural realignment, driven by Europe's urgent need to diversify away from Russian gas and Asia's sustained demand for a cleaner-burning transition fuel. In this new geopolitical energy landscape, a trio of African nations—Nigeria, Angola, and Mozambique—is emerging as a critical axis of LNG supply, poised to reshape the future of the global market. This report analyzes the distinct but complementary roles these three countries are playing, from established production to new mega-projects, and how their collective output will influence global energy security and trade flows.

Our analysis reveals three distinct models of LNG market influence:

• Nigeria: The Legacy Powerhouse Undergoing Expansion. As a long-established top-10 global LNG exporter, Nigeria's influence is being redefined by the massive NLNG Train 7 project. This expansion will not only increase its export capacity by over 35% but also solidify its role as a foundational, reliable supplier to the Atlantic basin and beyond. However, its ability to meet this potential is contingent on overcoming significant upstream challenges related to feed gas supply and security.
• Angola: The Master of Gas Resource Optimization. Angola represents a mature, steady producer that has successfully monetized the "associated gas" from its deepwater oil fields through its Angola LNG (ALNG) plant. Its strategy is one of efficiency and optimization, serving as a reliable supplier primarily to Europe and Asia, and demonstrating a successful model for eliminating gas flaring by turning a waste product into a high-value export.
• Mozambique: The New Super-Supplier in Waiting. Mozambique is the future giant of the African LNG scene. The massive, world-class gas reserves in its offshore Rovuma Basin are giving rise to a series of multi-billion dollar LNG projects. While the operational Coral Sul FLNG has already put the country on the LNG map, the impending restart of TotalEnergies' much larger onshore Mozambique LNG project, and the potential of ExxonMobil's Rovuma LNG, signal the arrival of a new super-supplier with the capacity to rival the world's largest exporters.

Together, these three nations represent a powerful and diversified African LNG portfolio. They offer a combination of established reliability (Nigeria, Angola) and massive future growth potential (Mozambique), positioning the continent as an indispensable pillar of global energy security and a key player in the future LNG supply market.

I. The Global Shift: The New Geopolitics of Natural Gas

The 2022 energy crisis, triggered by the conflict in Ukraine, fundamentally and permanently altered the global natural gas market. Europe's strategic decision to drastically reduce its dependence on Russian pipeline gas created an unprecedented supply shock and sent prices soaring. This has triggered a global "dash for gas," with a particular focus on flexible, seaborne Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG).

This has created a new set of strategic imperatives for energy security:

1. Diversification of Supply: European and Asian buyers are urgently seeking to diversify their LNG sources to reduce reliance on any single supplier.
2. Long-Term Contracts: After a period of relying on the spot market, energy security concerns are driving buyers back towards securing long-term supply contracts to ensure reliability.
3. The Rise of Africa: With its vast, relatively untapped gas reserves and its geographic proximity to Europe, Africa has emerged as the most logical and strategic solution to this supply gap.

II. Nigeria: The Giant's Second Wind

Nigeria has been a major player in the global LNG market for decades, centered on its highly successful Nigeria LNG (NLNG) facility on Bonny Island. Operated as a joint venture between the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), Shell, TotalEnergies, and Eni, NLNG has been a reliable supplier, primarily to the European market.

The NLNG Train 7 Expansion

The most significant development in Nigeria's LNG sector is the Train 7 project. This is a massive, multi-billion dollar expansion of the existing NLNG plant.

• Capacity Boost: The project will add a seventh LNG processing train and upgrade associated facilities, boosting the plant's total production capacity by over 35%, from the current 22 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) to over 30 MTPA.
• Strategic Impact: This expansion will cement Nigeria's position as one of the top LNG exporters in the world. It signals a major commitment to monetizing the country's vast gas reserves, which are the largest in Africa.

The Feed Gas Challenge

However, Nigeria's ability to capitalize on its LNG infrastructure is severely constrained by a critical upstream challenge: feed gas supply. The existing NLNG trains have been operating significantly below their nameplate capacity in recent years. This is not due to a lack of reserves, but to a combination of factors:

• Upstream Underinvestment: A lack of investment in developing new gas fields has limited the amount of gas available to be sent to the LNG plant.
• Pipeline Vandalism and Security: Persistent security issues in the Niger Delta have led to sabotage and disruptions of the gas pipeline network.

The Outlook: Nigeria's future role in the LNG market is a tale of two parts. The downstream infrastructure (NLNG Train 7) represents a world-class, expanding asset. The key to unlocking its full potential lies in resolving the upstream security and investment challenges to ensure a reliable and sufficient supply of feed gas.

III. Angola: The Optimization Champion

Angola's journey into the LNG market is a story of resource efficiency and a successful strategy to end natural gas flaring. For years, the "associated gas" produced alongside crude oil from its deepwater fields was considered a waste product and flared off.

The Angola LNG (ALNG) Project

The Angola LNG (ALNG) project, located in Soyo, was designed to solve this problem. It is a single-train facility with a capacity of 5.2 MTPA, unique in its design to process associated gas from multiple offshore oil fields operated by different international oil companies.

• A "Gas Flaring Elimination" Model: The project is a major environmental success, providing a commercial outlet for gas that would otherwise be flared, thereby significantly reducing the carbon footprint of Angola's oil industry.
• Reliable Supplier: ALNG has established itself as a reliable supplier of LNG cargoes, primarily to Europe and Asia. Its location on the Atlantic coast gives it flexibility to supply both markets efficiently.
• Future Growth: The consortium is actively seeking new sources of gas, both associated gas from new oil developments and non-associated gas, to keep the plant full and potentially expand its capacity in the future.

The Outlook: Angola is a mature and steady player. While it doesn't have the mega-scale of Mozambique or Nigeria, it represents a stable and efficient model for monetizing gas resources that are a by-product of oil production. It is a key, reliable supplier in a tight global market.

IV. Mozambique: The Emerging LNG Superpower

Mozambique is the future giant of the African LNG landscape. The discovery of massive, world-class natural gas reserves (over 100 trillion cubic feet) in the offshore Rovuma Basin is set to transform the country into one of the world's largest LNG exporters.

The Rovuma Basin Mega-Projects

The development of these resources is proceeding through a series of multi-billion dollar mega-projects.

1. Coral Sul FLNG (Area 4):

   • Operator: Eni
   • Status: Operational. This Floating LNG (FLNG) project, with a capacity of 3.4 MTPA, began production in 2022 and shipped its first cargo, successfully putting Mozambique on the global LNG map. It demonstrated that projects could be successfully executed despite security challenges on the mainland.

2. Mozambique LNG (Area 1):

   • Operator: TotalEnergies
   • Status: On hold, but preparing to restart. This is a much larger, $20 billion onshore project with a planned capacity of 13.1 MTPA. Construction was halted in 2021 after a major attack by Islamist insurgents. However, an improved security situation, thanks to the intervention of Rwandan and SADC forces, has led TotalEnergies to signal its intention to restart the project in 2024/2025. This restart will be a major inflection point for the global LNG market.

3. Rovuma LNG (Area 4):

   • Operator: ExxonMobil and Eni
   • Status: Awaiting Final Investment Decision (FID). This is another massive onshore project, planned to be even larger than Mozambique LNG. While a final investment decision has been delayed due to the security situation, a successful restart of the TotalEnergies project would likely pave the way for Rovuma LNG to move forward.

The Outlook: Mozambique's potential is immense. Once the onshore projects are operational, the country will have a combined LNG export capacity that rivals established players like Australia and Qatar. It is geographically well-positioned to supply the rapidly growing energy markets in Asia. While the security risk in Cabo Delgado requires ongoing management, the scale of the resource is so large that it makes Mozambique an unavoidable player in the long-term future of the LNG market.

Table 1: The African LNG Power Players

V. Conclusion: A New Axis of Global LNG Supply

Nigeria, Angola, and Mozambique are collectively reshaping the global LNG map. They represent a powerful new axis of African supply that offers a compelling solution to the world's shifting energy needs. The combination of Nigeria's established production and expansion, Angola's steady reliability, and Mozambique's enormous growth potential makes the continent an indispensable component of global energy security for decades to come. For LNG buyers in Europe and Asia, building strong, long-term partnerships with these three African nations is no longer just an option; it is a strategic necessity.